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    北京配资公司:国联期货:2019年棉花展望:回落将夯实上涨的基础

    时间:2019/2/11 11:57:56  作者:  来源:  查看:12  评论:0
    内容摘要:中美贸易关系的演变影响着中国下游纺织企业的消费订单。消费不启动,棉花市场就难以上涨。也就是说,消费什么时候启动,期货市场的上涨将从什么时候开始。以下有几个重要时间节点:  1月中下旬,1901合约交割。此时,老棉仓单(约23万吨)将流出期货市场,库存压力将将释放不少。同时,冬季是...
    中美贸易关系的演变影响着中国下游纺织企业的消费订单。消费不启动,棉花市场就难以上涨。也就是说,消费什么时候启动,期货市场的上涨将从什么时候开始。以下有几个重要时间节点:

      1月中下旬,1901合约交割。此时,老棉仓单(约23万吨)将流出期货市场,库存压力将将释放不少。同时,冬季是纺织企业传统的备货时节。届时,郑棉市场压力减轻,有望形成底部。

      3月前后,中美贸易问题将有一个明朗的结局。若按相对乐观的情形推测;同时,春季是纺企的生产旺季。那么,在这段时间,棉市有望形成上升行情的第一浪,并持续至4月份。

      步入5月份,市场又将迎来1905合约的交割(新棉),届时,在交割压力下,市场有望进入2浪调整。当交割仓单流入现货后,市场压力顿感轻松。

      6月份后,市场将在“金九银十”的牵引下,有望走出一波较大的上涨行情(第3浪)。


    2019年棉花展望:回落将夯实上涨的基础

      一、影响市场的重要因素

      1、中美贸易战前景依旧不明朗

      7月份时,特朗普政府推出了一份目标清单,计划对中国新增2000亿美元产品加增关税(+10%),其中,拟议的商品清单包括服装消费品。9月份,特朗普政府计划从2019年1月1日起对这部分的商品关税从10%再调高至25%。然而,G20会议(11月底)后,风向突变,中美首脑达成协议:双方约定未来90天内不再加征新的关税,争取在90天内协商出一份满意的结果。若出现最坏结果,那么,明年3月1日,美国对中国商品的进口关税仍将加征至25%,甚至扩展至其余。

      看似前景有些乐观,然而,不到明年3月1日,中美贸易战的前景难以确定。

      我国是全球最大的纺织品服装出口国。其中,纺织品服装占对外贸易总额的比率为13%左右,并且有17%的份额是销往美国(第一大进口国)的。据海关统计,2017年,中国纺织品服装累计贸易额2931亿美元,其中出口2686亿美元,进口245亿美元,累计贸易顺差2440亿美元。

      目前,中国服装常见产品类关税一般在10-20%左右。按照美国对服装进口关税提高10%,造成中国对美出口成本的大幅提升,并带来竞争乏力和订单下滑。最终影响中国的棉花需求。

      可以说,中美贸易战对中国经济的影响是深远的,尤其是中国的纺织工业。据悉,在今年秋季的第124届广交会上,中国对美国出口的成交额出现大幅度下滑,达30%。例如,中国纺织企业的PMI已经连续6个月位于收缩区,并且最后3个月出现显著回落。11月份,纺织企业的PMI为41.74,是今年的最低,同比下滑6.3个百分点;其中,新订单指数为37.69,为去年7月以来最低。

      据统计局数据,今年前10纺织品服装类零售累计值10793亿元,同比去年下降了9.16%。其中,11月份对外出口额为230亿美元,下降0.26%。

      如此看来,下游纺织服装消费在下半年出现下滑,尤其是第四季度。

      未来,对于中美贸易战有三种不同的走向:

      第一种,双方谈判团在90天内最终达成和解协议。这是乐观的结局,那么,中国对美国的服装类出口订单将会出现大幅回升,棉花需求就有了确定性保障。无疑是巨大的利多因素。

      第二种,双方在某些领域达成了妥协(如:农产品方面),其余的如知识产权之类还将商榷,但不再升级;那么,这也是比较确定性的利好。

      第三种,因美方要求过多,中国难以满足其要求;那么,谈判失败,贸易战升级。这对棉花的消费影响是巨大的,但也仅仅是阶段性的;并不会影响全球棉花的消费总量。

      2、商业库存累积与巨量注册仓单问题

      第四季度,由于下游纺企订单低迷,新棉销售放缓,商业库存出现快速累积。据悉,至11月底,全社会棉花商业库存高达426万吨,为近年来最高水平,环比上个月增加129万吨,同比上年同期多出136万吨!

      商业库存增加主要是新棉销售不畅所至。截止12月14日当周,全国新棉销售率仅为17.9%,同比下降3.9个百分点,较4年同期均值下降9.9个百分点。当前,内地大中型纺织企业主要消费的是储备棉、17/18年度的陈棉,以及进口棉。

      后期,若是中美贸易走向乐观,或是冬季采购需求回暖;那么,这个累积的库存“堰塞湖”将逐渐被疏通。但是,这需要一个较长过程和一定条件。

      另一方面,从注册仓单角度看,自今年以来,郑交所的注册仓单和有效仓单数量持续上升(如图1所示),并没有出现往年在下半年仓单快速回落的局面。这说明什么呢?说明棉花加工商更愿意利用期货市场来销售其17/18年度的棉花,以及今年秋季收获的新棉。归根到底,是消费回落所至。

      截止12月18日,郑棉注册仓单14634张,有效预报1707张;其中17/18年度的陈棉仓单有5282张。如此,注册仓单折合棉花总量为58.5万吨,陈棉还有21.1万吨。

      就不断增长的仓单而言,庞大的库存,未来如何消化呢?

      相对本年度月均75万吨的消费量而言,58万吨的注册仓单算不上什么。只要消费恢复正常,那么,一切库存压力将迅速化解。但这有赖于中美谈判在3月前达成满意的结果。

      对于陈棉仓单,经过1901合约的交割,这些仓单将在1月中旬后就会流出期货市场,并被纺织企业所消化。大连期货市场将“如释重负”。由此推测:棉花市场在2019年1月中旬完成底部构造的可能性较大。

      至于新棉仓单,则需要等到1905合约交割之时才能彻底化解。在此之前,3月份时,中美贸易问题的解决就有了明确的答案;同时,春季也是棉纺企业的生产旺季。若是如此,我们推测:在5月之前,伴随着春季生产旺季,在消费复苏的推动下,棉价或呈现出缓步上涨的态势。

      图1:郑交所注册仓单与有效仓单数量


      数据来源:Wind资讯

      3、国储棉“去化”及走向

      “去库存”是这几年我国棉花市场“供给侧”改革的重要战略。只有库存降至正常水平,那么,棉花价格将升至合理水平,并恢复市场弹性,为农民增收创造良好的市场环境。

      据统计,国家储备库经过2016-2018年的拍卖,棉花累计成交总量分别为:266万吨、322万吨、251万吨。也就是说,经过几年的拍卖,国储棉累计出库量达839万吨!平均成交价14224元/吨。

      据业内人士估计,当前国储棉库存已降至公认的300万吨安全线之下,约在270万吨水平。可见,我国棉花的“去库存”战略任务基本完成了。

      今年的国储棉拍卖是从3月初开始至9月底,共有251万吨出库。问题是:如果2019年3月份继续抛储,那么,国储库存至明年9月份就会“基本清空”了!

      未来,如果国储仍要发挥调节市场的作用,那么,就需求保存一定数量的库存。显然,有两种方式处理这个问题:1、本年度,乘着低价吸纳一些新棉;2、扩大进口配额,用以补充库存。无论何种方式,都会导致国内外棉市价格的上涨。

      4、中国、美国及全球棉花的种植情况

      播种面积是决定农产品价格的首要因素,其播种趋向是决定着未来价格趋势。

      面积是决定产量的第一要素;其次,才是天气。北半球棉花的播种时间是每年4-5月份。一般,美国农业部(USDA)会在3月30日公布当年的意向种植面积;在6月30日会公布当年实际的种植面积。这两个时间点均会对棉花价格产生较大影响。

      据12月份USDA给出的数据看:

      中国:近12年来,播种面积呈现出明显地波动式向下状态。最近4年种植面积总体波动不大,尽管2017年面积增加了17.2%,但今年却减少了1.4%。去年棉花产量增加了103.6万吨(+20.8%),今年USDA给出产量预估是:588.6万吨,下降10.9万吨。这个数值与需求量(904.7万吨)比,供给缺口316.1万吨,库存/消费比较下降至73.1%。

      全球:从2006年到2018年,棉花种植面积呈现平稳波动状态。也就是说,全球产量起伏不大。其中,2017年全球棉花播种面积增加了12.5%,今年减少了0.86%。如此,将导致产不足需达150.2万吨,库存/消费比下降至58.2%。

      美国:今年种植面积为1404万英亩,同比增长11.3%;而2017年面积大幅增加了25.2%。尽管如此,今年美国棉花的产量却减少了50.8万吨(-11.1%),为405.2万吨。对于2019年,USDA给出最早的预估数据是:1350万英亩!如此,面积下降了3.8%。

      一般,市场对于棉花种植面积的预估要到2月份。届时,面积的炒作将进入视野。

      表1:中国与全球棉花播种面积




      数据来源:Wind资讯

      二、USDA12月报告解读及后期猜想

      1、美国方面:

      USDA报告显示,18/19年度美棉产量减少50.8万吨至405.2万吨;同时,出口减少18.5万吨至327.0万吨;期末库存略调高至95.9万吨。

      这里最重要的数据是出口,18/19年度美棉出口量占全球出口的36%。出口调减与中美贸易战有关。如果贸易谈判顺利,那么,美棉将在产量下降而出口调升的基础上,出现一波较好的上涨。

      2、全球方面:

      先回顾一下国际棉花(美棉),是从2016年3月份开始发动一波较大上涨行情。当时背景是:全球棉花期末库存出现了连续两年的下降。其时,16/17年度期末库存下降了216万吨至1752万吨,库存/消费比降至69%。

      现如今,USDA预期2018年秋全球棉花产量为2588万吨(-108.1),消费量为2738万吨(+53.9)。如此,18/19年度期末库存将下降158万吨至1595万吨,库存/消费比降至58%。库存相比上年度出现较大下降,说明全球供求偏紧。若是中国进口外棉补充库存(国储棉库存量已在安全线下),那么,全球库存下降量将会调升。

      从前面例子就可以看出:库存较大幅度的下降,最终会体现在价格的大幅上涨中。同样,18/19年度期末库存的下降,将会在某个时期引发国际棉花的上涨。

      表2:全球棉花供求平衡表(单位:万吨)



      数据来源:USDA

      在农产品的分析中,最重要的是:观察“库存/消费比”的变化及趋势。从表2可以看出:自14/15年度库存/消费比触顶以来,该值呈现逐年下降的态势。主要是产量波动不大而需求刚性增长所至。随着全球供求关系的逐年紧张,必将伴随着棉花价格重心的攀升。也就是就说,未来几年,棉花将呈上涨格局。

      3、中国方面:

      从USDA12月份棉花的供求平衡表看:未来几年的显著特征是“去库存”。

      如表3所示,在2014/15年度,中国棉花期末库存达到顶峰为1458万吨,库存/消费比为196%。自此,库存/消费比逐年下降;并且,郑棉期价在2016年4月反转向上。如今,USDA预计2018/19年度,中国棉花的库存/消费比将下降为73%,库存仅为662万吨。显然,库存下降还会继续。

      表3:中国棉花供求平衡表(单位:万吨)



      数据来源:USDA

      造成这样原因是:近年产需之间存在缺口。

      15/16年度,产量与消费之间缺口为284万吨,库存降至1236万吨,库存/消费比为162%。

      16/17年度,产量与消费之间缺口为344万吨,库存降至1001万吨,库存/消费比为119%。

      17/18年度,产量与消费之间缺口为294万吨,库存降至828万吨,库存/消费比为92%。

      18/19年度,产量与消费之间缺口为316万吨,库存降至662万吨,库存/消费比为73%。

      这四个年度的产需缺口均值为309万吨。考虑到产量增加不大,但需求呈现上升状态(中美贸易战对需求的冲击是阶段性的)。如此,库存下降的趋势仍将继续下去。

      因此,市场人士担忧:当明年秋季,期末库存下降较低水平时,届时,国储库存对市场调节的作用就大为削弱。怎么办呢?国储可以从国内或国外乘低价进行补库。然而,这会造成国内外供给资源的紧张,以及价格的上涨。

      根据历史经验,当某年度的库存/消费比下降到30%时,那么,棉价将重返历史最高水平。

      三、棉花市场后市展望

      下面,对棉花的后期走势作个推测(图3所示为最乐观的一种):

      中美贸易关系的演变影响着中国下游纺织企业的消费订单。消费不启动,棉花市场就难以上涨。也就是说,消费什么时候启动,期货市场的上涨将从什么时候开始。以下有几个重要时间节点:

      1月中下旬,1901合约交割。此时,老棉仓单(约23万吨)将流出期货市场,库存压力将将释放不少。同时,冬季是纺织企业传统的备货时节。届时,郑棉市场压力减轻,有望形成底部。

      3月前后,中美贸易问题将有一个明朗的结局。若按相对乐观的情形推测;同时,春季是纺企的生产旺季。那么,在这段时间,棉市有望形成上升行情的第一浪,并持续至4月份。

      步入5月份,市场又将迎来1905合约的交割(新棉),届时,在交割压力下,市场有望进入2浪调整。当交割仓单流入现货后,市场压力顿感轻松。

      6月份后,市场将在“金九银十”的牵引下,有望走出一波较大的上涨行情(第3浪)。

      最差的一种走势是:如果中美贸易谈判未果,那么,上涨的时间将延迟至5月份后。

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